In line with expectations, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.75% at its April meeting, in a vote of 6 in favor and 3 against, with the dissenters (Takata, Tamura, and Nakagawa) proposing a 0.25% increase, in an environment of uncertainty from the armed conflict in the Middle East and the rebound in energy prices.

Our take

The armed conflict has complicated the actions of monetary authorities, as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has fueled inflation expectations and clouded global growth prospects. In this regard, the Japanese authority leaves the door open to continuing to withdraw stimulus at future meetings. 

US President Donald Trump is analyzing with his national security team a proposal from Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for Washington lifting its blockade and ending the war. However, the White House indicated that the president is not satisfied with the proposal because it does not address Iran's nuclear program. This keeps the conflict, now lasting two months, still at a standstill.

Our take

Investors remain alert to any diplomatic progress that could reduce energy uncertainty and improve global macroeconomic visibility. Oil prices are extending their gains after US Central Command reported that they detained an Iranian-flagged tanker after it attempted to head to an Iranian port. 

Eurozone consumers' expectations for the evolution of inflation over the next year and over three years increased significantly, according to the survey compiled by the European Central Bank (ECB) in March, coinciding with the first month of the Middle East conflict. Expectations for the next 12 months rose to 4.0% from 2.5% in February, reaching their highest level since October 2023. Meanwhile, three-year inflation expectations rose to 3.0% from 2.5% in February, and five-year expectations increased to 2.4% from 2.3%.

Our take

The Middle East conflict, which has triggered the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, has pushed energy prices higher and increased fears of more widespread inflationary pressures. 

Latin American and Caribbean economies would grow an average of 2.2% in 2026, according to the updated projections by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), representing a slight downward revision from the 2.3% estimated in December 2025. This result reflects a more complex external environment than anticipated at the end of last year, characterized by heightened geopolitical tensions, restrictive financial conditions, and the resurgence of inflationary pressures at the global level.

Our take

The lower economic dynamism projected for this year is observed broadly, with growth slowing in 24 of the 33 countries in the region, while only seven would show an acceleration. One of those seven would be Mexico, whose 2026 projection was revised upward by two tenths to 1.5%. 

Corporate News

Liverpool reported first-quarter consolidated revenues practically unchanged from the prior year, with divergent performance across segments. The commercial business retreated 1.9%, affected by a demanding comparative base, greater consumer sensitivity to promotions, and disruptions in imported merchandise supply chains; additionally, security events in Jalisco during February generated non-recurring expenses of approximately 150 million pesos.

Our Take 

Liverpool's quarter reflects the combination of specific factors that characterize the Mexican consumer environment in 2026: an unfavorable comparative base, the impact of peso appreciation on the competitiveness of imported merchandise, and a consumer that responds more to promotions than to regular pricing. The security events in Jalisco are a non-recurring factor that distorts comparability, but the weakness in same-store sales (VMT) across both brands suggests that traffic recovery in stores will require more than the normalization of those specific factors. The earnings call is at 8:00am. 

OMA recorded total revenues of 3.816 billion pesos in the first quarter (+6.9% year-on-year), with passenger traffic growing 4.7% to 6.7 million. The domestic TUA (passenger use tariff) grew 9.2%, though the international rate retreated 10.5% due to the appreciation of the peso against the dollar. Service costs and general expenses grew 20.0%, impacted by maintenance and the new major maintenance provision of 108.7 million pesos under the recently approved 2026–2030 PMD.

Our take

OMA's results show an airport group operating solidly in its core traffic business, but facing a cost transition stemming from the entry into force of the new 2026–2030 PMD. The major maintenance provision is an accounting effect that does not reflect real operational deterioration, but will distort comparisons over the next few quarters until it normalizes in the base. The element with the greatest forward-looking impact on margins is the definition of maximum tariffs under the new regulatory cycle. OMA will hold its earnings call at 10:00am. 

Regional reported portfolio growth of 9% year-on-year. The financial margin was 3.826 billion pesos (+3% year-on-year), supported by an 11% reduction in interest expenses from Banxico's rate-cutting cycle. However, net income fell 7% year-on-year to 1.515 billion pesos, affected by higher non-financial expenses (+11%) and losses in other operating items. The most relevant corporate event of the quarter was the formalization of Hey Banco as an independent entity as of February 1, 2026.

Our take

The quarter illustrates the central tension Mexican regional banking will face throughout 2026: solid portfolio growth and asset quality that remains intact, but margin compression from the rate cuts that has not yet been fully reflected in funding costs. At current multiples, the bank continues to offer relative attractiveness compared to its peers in the sector. The earnings call is at 9:00am. 

Volaris reported first-quarter revenues with 13.6% year-on-year growth, driven by a higher average base fare. However, EBITDAR was US$177 million with a margin of 22.9%, impacted by higher fuel costs and increased maintenance expenses. Additionally, Volaris withdrew its full-year guidance, citing geopolitical uncertainty and fuel price volatility.

Our take

The withdrawal of Volaris's annual guidance is the most negative signal of the quarter and the one that will carry the most weight in the market's reaction. The 13% EBITDAR margin guidance for the second quarter contrasts with the company's historical levels and confirms that the energy shock from the Iran conflict is having a considerable impact on low-cost airlines that, like Volaris, do not have systematic fuel hedging. The earnings call is at 9:00am. 

Microsoft and OpenAI renegotiated the terms of their alliance, eliminating Microsoft's exclusivity to commercialize OpenAI's models. Under the new agreement, Microsoft will have preferential access to OpenAI's models, but these will be subsequently available to other providers, including Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud. Microsoft, for its part, will stop paying OpenAI a commission on revenues generated from selling its services.

General Motors raised its 2026 operating profit forecast by US$500 million to a maximum of US$15.5 billion, after reporting a first quarter with earnings above consensus. The company also incorporated US$500 million in tariff cost relief stemming from the February Supreme Court ruling that struck down several Trump tariffs.

Coca-Cola reported 10% organic growth in the first quarter driven by sales of smaller formats. The company raised its full-year earnings per share guidance to growth of between 8% and 9%, from the prior 7%–8%. Brian Niccol, the new CEO who took over at the end of March.

The to-do list

  • Stay alert for Trump's response to Iran's proposal: oil is already rising to $110 and any statement from the White House will move markets immediately.

  • Today, review Visa, Walmex, and Orbia at the close, their guidance will be the most important corporate reference of the day.

  • It's Tuesday, a good day to advance the week's pending matters before more data and reports arrive.

  • Get further along tonight in Thinking, Fast and Slow, one chapter a day is enough to finish the book before the month ends.

  • Go and exercise today, your body will thank you.

Quote of the day

"Knowledge speaks, but wisdom listens."

— Jimi Hendrix