Later, at 8:00 a.m., The Conference Board will release its consumer confidence index for July. Market consensus anticipates an increase to 92.0 points from the 91.2 recorded in June. The indicator will be closely monitored by markets as it provides a reference for household perceptions of current economic conditions and expectations for the coming months, making it a relevant determinant for the trajectory of private consumption.

Our Take

We expect the indicator to continue showing a gradual recovery in consumer confidence, supported by labor market strength and income growth. A result above consensus would reinforce the perception that private consumption is maintaining resilient performance, while a softer reading could reignite concerns about a moderation in domestic demand during the second half.

U.S. wholesale inventories rose 0.3% month-over-month in June, in line with the revised May figure and above the 0.2% consensus. With this, inventories logged five consecutive months of growth and reached a value of $945.9 billion. The advance was driven by a 0.7% increase in durable goods inventories, while non-durable goods fell 0.4%, reversing the gain observed the prior month. On an annual basis, inventories grew 4.4%.

Our Take

The increase in inventories suggests that wholesale sector activity continues to show resilience, supported primarily by the accumulation of durable goods. While a higher inventory level may reflect favorable expectations for future demand, it will also be important to assess whether this growth is accompanied by sustained momentum in sales, as excessive accumulation could translate into lower production levels in the coming months. On the whole, the data points to a moderately positive contribution from the inventory component to second-quarter economic growth.

Corporate news

Nvidia fell 4.99% to $196.51 on Monday, in part due to reports of a new round of circular financing with OpenAI, according to Reuters. The decline, combined with a broader weakening in tech, allowed Apple to reclaim the title of the world's most valuable company. The move comes ahead of a busy week of earnings from major tech companies on Wall Street and in Asia, with SK Hynix reporting tomorrow and Samsung reporting this week.

Our Take

Nvidia is one of the most heavily weighted positions held by Mexican investors through the SIC, meaning a stumble of this magnitude is felt directly in peso-denominated portfolios with technology exposure. The underlying issue, circular financing, where the supplier finances its own customer, is precisely the type of structure the market begins to scrutinize when sentiment turns. It is not a thesis for panic selling, but it is a reason to review how much of a portfolio's recent performance depends on a single name.

Ford is among the companies reporting results today. In parallel, the automaker announced an expansion of its customization menu, featuring more performance parts, accessories, and special editions inspired by Nike sneaker launches, including a pink version of its Bronco carrying a $13,695 premium. The strategy aims to capture a larger share of the $53 billion aftermarket automotive accessories market, backed by a three-year warranty and financing through its lending arm.

Nucor, the largest steel producer, reported results that widely exceeded expectations. Price increases and solid demand drove earnings higher. The company reported EPS of $4.84 and revenues exceeding $10.4 billion.

Coca-Cola reports results today. With figures not yet published at the time of this edition, the focus will be on volume trends by region, pricing dynamics, and guidance for the remainder of the year.

Visa is also among today's reports. Pending the figures, the key points to watch are payment volume growth, cross-border spending, and commentary on the U.S. consumer.

The to-do list

  • Review the weighting of mega-cap tech positions (especially Nvidia) in portfolios with SIC exposure ahead of this week's earnings reports and tomorrow's Fed decision.

  • Monitor the reaction of the 10-year Treasury and the peso following tomorrow's Fed decision; recalibrate duration in Mbonos only once the data is in hand.

  • Tonight, make some huitlacoche quesadillas with epazote, the most Mexican mushroom of the season and one that is only available during these months.

  • Dedicate 30 minutes to a tabata session at home: twenty seconds of maximum effort and ten of rest, one of the most efficient workouts when time is tight.

Today's quote…

"The only person you are destined to become is the person you decide to be."

— Ralph Waldo Emerson