Germany's inflation moderated in June to 2.3% annually, three tenths below the prior month's rate. This is the smallest price increase in the German country since last February. This moderation was mainly due to the fact that the rise in energy prices slowed once again. In the sixth month of the year, that category increased 3.4%, well below May's 6.6% and April's 10.1%.

Our Take

Inflation figures, although weaker than expected, will likely not significantly alter the market's assessment of the ECB's policy outlook. In their recent speeches, ECB policymakers expressed their willingness to maintain a more restrictive policy should inflation in the euro area not show signs of a steady deceleration.

The British economy accelerated in the first quarter, a period in which UK GDP increased 0.6%, in line with expectations, following growth of 0.2% in Q4 2025. The figure represents the largest quarterly expansion since Q1 2025.

Our Take

The report confirms greater resilience than anticipated at the start of the year, although the idea persists that the data "reflects old news," as it does not yet capture the full impact of the Iran-US conflict on imported inflation nor the internal political uncertainty over the current Labour leadership succession.

A new round of negotiations between the US and Iran is scheduled to take place today to advance toward a lasting peace agreement. However, tensions remain elevated after Iran declared its intention to impose unilateral traffic controls in the Strait of Hormuz if Oman does not cooperate, a measure the US and its allies firmly oppose due to the risk it could translate into toll collection.

Our Take Tensions in the Middle East are not generating strong risk-aversion episodes as long as oil prices remain controlled. And they remain controlled primarily due to the oversupply in oil markets, thanks to historic strategic reserve releases and the tankers navigating the Strait of Hormuz.

The Japanese yen retreats to its lowest level since 1986 against the US dollar, raising investor alarm about a possible intervention by Japanese authorities. Specifically, the exchange rate at times reaches levels above 162 yen per dollar. Japanese officials have stated they are prepared to take necessary measures. The relative monetary policy between the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve, as well as doubts about the Asian country's fiscal situation, are the elements behind the continued depreciation of the Japanese currency.

Our Take

The reason the Japanese government has not intervened is justified by the idea that intervening now would not change the market's direction, or the impact would be very limited, but would carry a high cost. Additionally, the depreciation appears to be occurring gradually, so unless we see aggressive yen selling, Japanese authorities seem willing to remain on the sidelines, for now.

Later, the United States will publish The Conference Board's consumer confidence index for June. Market consensus estimates the indicator will rise to 94.6 points from the 93.1 recorded in May, which would point to a moderate improvement in US household perception after the weakness observed in recent months.

Our Take

If the rebound is confirmed, consumer confidence would continue showing a gradual recovery, supported by labor market resilience. However, the indicator's level would still reflect caution among households, in an environment marked by geopolitical uncertainty, high fuel prices, and the persistence of relatively elevated interest rates, factors that could continue to limit consumption dynamism in the coming months.

Corporate News

Strategy Inc. presented a new financing model that gives it greater flexibility to preserve liquidity, repurchase discounted securities, and monetize Bitcoin when raising fresh capital becomes less attractive, thus breaking with the company's original promise of deploying every new dollar into the cryptocurrency. The company indicated it could sell up to US$1.25 billion in Bitcoin to strengthen its cash reserves, after months of the asset's price decline that raised concerns about the firm's ability to meet its financial obligations.

AeroVironment, the leading US manufacturer of military drones and unmanned systems, reported quarterly results that broadly exceeded analyst estimates, driving a 21% advance in its shares in pre-market trading. The rally had an immediate ripple effect on the rest of the defense and drone technology sector.

Our Take

The results reflect growing demand for unmanned systems stemming simultaneously from the conflict in Ukraine and the persistent tension in the Persian Gulf, which has raised NATO and Gulf countries' defense spending on surveillance systems and unmanned aerial threat containment.

In Taiwan, authorities raided Super Micro Computer's offices as part of an investigation into the alleged smuggling of Nvidia AI chips into China, in violation of US export restrictions that prohibit the sale of the company's most advanced processors to that country.

Our Take

Export controls on advanced semiconductors between the US and China remain an active front of geopolitical friction, even in a context where other areas of the bilateral trade relationship show signs of easing, such as the recent Boeing order from China Southern Airlines. The company's declared cooperation with authorities will be the determining factor in whether the episode is resolved as an isolated case involving specific employees or escalates into broader corporate sanctions.

The to-do list

  • Follow the Doha negotiations between the US and Iran: although Trump assures the meeting is scheduled, Iran denies it and maintains the threat to impose unilateral controls in the Strait of Hormuz, which remains the geopolitical risk to watch for oil prices.

  • Watch the yen, which is touching 40-year lows against the dollar near 162: the Japanese government has not yet intervened, but any sign of action from authorities could generate volatility in global currency markets.

  • Today at 7:00pm Mexico faces Ecuador in a match that determines passage to the round of 16, prepare something quick before kickoff and experience one of the Tri's most important matches in this World Cup.

  • Dedicate the 30 minutes before the match to stretching or doing a short routine at home, enter the game with body and mind clear.

Today's quote…

"Don't watch the clock; do what it does. Keep going."

— Sam Levenson