However, in the first two months of the year, 250,076 vehicles were sold, representing annual growth of 4.4%.
Markets and Stocks
Global markets are operating with heightened caution as investors continue to assess the implications of the conflict in the Middle East for energy supply and global growth. Futures on U.S. equity indices remain moderately positive after recent episodes of high volatility. In Asia, major indices recorded sharp declines, particularly in South Korea, where the stock market experienced one of its worst historical drops, while in Europe equities are showing a partial rebound after two sessions of widespread selling.
Key points
Reports of possible contacts between Iran and the United States lift financial markets after two days of sharp declines.
President Trump offers insurance and military escort for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
U.S. private job creation showed improvement in February.
China’s manufacturing and services sectors remain in contraction territory for a second consecutive month.
The private sector raises Mexico’s 2026 growth forecast to 1.46%.
Later today, the U.S. February ISM services index will be released (9 a.m.), followed by the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book (1 p.m.).
What you need to know about the economy and markets
In February 2026, 118,297 light vehicles were sold in Mexico, representing a 0.3% annual decline compared with February 2025. In contrast, during the January–February period of 2026, a total of 250,076 units were sold, 4.4% higher than the same period a year earlier, equivalent to an increase of 10,521 vehicles.
Our take
The slight annual contraction in February suggests a pause in the momentum observed at the beginning of the year, although cumulative growth still points to relatively solid domestic demand. This behavior may reflect calendar effects or temporary inventory adjustments rather than a structural deterioration in the automotive market.
A report from The New York Times indicating that Iranian officials may have used indirect channels to seek contact with U.S. representatives helped improve sentiment in global financial markets. The article itself notes that Washington is not considering the offer, but markets reacted positively in a context of instability and uncertainty.
Our take
Although the report indicates that U.S. officials remain skeptical about the alleged outreach, some market participants see a potential turning point after several days of uninterrupted offensive actions, or are simply locking in gains amid heightened volatility.
Before the New York Times report, markets had focused on Donald Trump’s proposal to provide insurance and military escorts for ships resuming maritime transit through the Strait of Hormuz, in an effort to restore normal trade flows and ease pressure on energy prices.
Our take
The promise of such guarantees comes at a time when insurers are canceling war-risk coverage for ships navigating the Strait of Hormuz. It is good news, but clearly it will not happen overnight. Naval escorts could be helpful, but this effort will take time.
Payroll processor ADP reported that U.S. companies created 63,000 net private-sector jobs in February (11,000 in January), above the 50,000 expected. Hiring was led by education and health services (+58,000), construction (+19,000), information (+11,000), and financial activities (+2,000). Gains were also recorded in leisure and hospitality (+1,000).
Our take
February’s figure suggests some stability in the U.S. labor market, marking the strongest job creation in three months. However, the pace of hiring remains moderate and below the levels observed in 2024 and part of 2025. Strength was concentrated in specific sectors, particularly education and healthcare, while other industries showed more limited growth. Overall, the labor market continues to adjust in an orderly manner without signs of abrupt deterioration.
In China, the official manufacturing PMI edged down to 49.0 from 49.3 in January, remaining in contraction territory below 50 for the second consecutive month. Meanwhile, the services PMI improved slightly to 49.5 from 49.4 in January but remained below expectations (49.7).
Our take
This slight slowdown in China’s economy is mainly explained by the seasonal pause during the nine-day Lunar New Year holiday. Despite this distortion in the data, there are still signs of cooling in key sectors. Attention now turns to China’s annual parliamentary meeting, which begins today.
Private sector economists now expect Mexico’s GDP to grow 1.46% this year, according to the results of Banco de México’s survey. This is the highest forecast in 11 months among those collected by the central bank. For inflation, the forecast stands at 3.98% for headline inflation and 4.18% for core inflation. The exchange rate is expected at 18.10 pesos per dollar, while the policy rate is projected to close the year at 6.50%.
Our take
The slight improvement in the GDP estimate suggests that, despite ongoing external uncertainty, the Mexican economy started the year with stronger momentum than previously expected, automatically leading to improved forecasts.
Today at 9 a.m., the United States will release the ISM services index. Expectations are for the sector to remain in expansion and continue growing in February. In addition, at 1 p.m., the Beige Book will be published, an important reference for the Federal Reserve.
Our take
The ISM report is expected to signal another robust expansion in the services sector, near highs since August 2024, while the Beige Book could point to a slight improvement in economic activity, driven by consumption, across most districts.
Markets and Stocks
Oil prices remain elevated amid the risk of supply disruptions, particularly due to tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Precious metals have shown mixed movements, while investors are also monitoring the potential impact that a prolonged energy shock could have on inflation and on the monetary policy decisions of major central banks.
Corporate
Bayer expects its revenues and earnings to remain largely unchanged in 2026 due to increasing competition from generic drugs and uncertainty related to U.S. litigation linked to pesticides.
Adidas shares fell to three-year lows after its earnings guidance failed to meet market expectations for profit growth.
Anthropic is reportedly on track to reach annualized revenues close to 20 billion dollars, driven by strong demand for generative AI solutions.
The to-do list
Walk or run for twenty minutes before or after work to clear your mind.
Stop by your nearest sports club and schedule a class or challenge someone to a tennis or padel match.
Check the schedule at the Auditorio Nacional and choose a concert or event for the coming weeks.
Spend twenty minutes in a bookstore in Centro or Roma browsing a book outside your usual interests.
Recommendation of the day
“The investor’s job is not to predict what the market will do, but to decide what he will do when the market moves.”
Howard Marks
Monitor
Bolsas / Exchanges
activo
valor
variacion_pct
S&P 500
6,821
-0.10%
Nasdaq
24,768
0.10%
Dow Jones
48,513
-0.10%
IPyC
68,688
0.00%
Monedas / FX (Foreign Exchange)
USD/MXN
17.6105
-0.50%
EUR/MXN
20.4762
-0.20%
EUR/USD
1.1626
0.10%
Índice DXY
98.85
-0.20%
Tasas / Exchange Rates
Treasury 2 años
3.51
1.4bp
Treasury 10 años
4.08
2.1bp
TIIE 3 meses
7.11
2.0bp
M Bono 10 años
8.79
-17.0bp
Commodities / Commodity Markets
Petróleo (Brent)
82.24
1.00%
Oro
5,166.00
1.60%
Important Notice
This document is confidential and intended solely for the use of clients and prospective clients of Kapital México Grupo Financiero (“Kapital”). The opinions contained herein reflect exclusively the views of the analysts as of the date of preparation, and such analysts do not receive any compensation from persons other than Kapital. Kapital hereby declares the following:
Kapital does not hold investments in the securities covered by this analytical report that represent one percent (1%) or more of its securities portfolio.
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During the past twelve months, where applicable, there have been changes in the direction of the opinions expressed in the analytical reports regarding the issuers covered by this analytical report, in accordance with prevailing economic, political, and social market conditions.
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