Stock markets, sovereign debt, precious metals, and emerging market currencies are posting significant declines today, larger than those seen on Monday. With no signs of de-escalation in the conflict, concerns about energy supply are centered on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The key factor is the duration of the conflict, but there are still few reasons for optimism.

Our take

If sustained, this evolution in energy prices could represent a double shock for economies: higher inflation and lower growth. President Trump commented yesterday that there is no fixed timeline for the duration of the conflict. Although he suggested it could last four to five weeks, he also stated that they have the capacity to endure as long as necessary, increasing doubts about a quick resolution.

At 9:00 a.m., the February Banxico Survey of private sector specialists will be released. Recall that in January’s survey, analysts estimated that by the end of 2026 GDP would grow 1.3%, headline inflation would stand at 3.95%, core inflation at 4.11%, the exchange rate at 18.50 pesos per dollar, and the interbank funding rate would close at 6.50%.

Our take

Close monitoring of this survey is particularly relevant, as it allows us to see how specialists are incorporating the latest information into the macroeconomic outlook. The key will be to identify whether the consensus shows significant adjustments in the expected trajectory for 2026, especially in an environment where core inflation and the monetary stance remain decisive factors for markets and financial decision-making.

U.S. manufacturing activity grew steadily in February. The Institute for Supply Management reported that its manufacturing index changed little last month, standing at 52.4 compared with 52.6 in January and above the expected 51.8. It is the second consecutive month above the 50 threshold, indicating expansion. However, the index of prices paid by manufacturers for inputs rose to its highest level in nearly three and a half years, highlighting upside inflation risks amid tariffs on imports, even before the U.S.-led attack on Iran triggered an increase in oil prices.

Our take

Manufacturing activity remained in expansion territory, although it grew at a slower pace than the previous month. The expectation is that industry will benefit this year from adjustments to U.S. tax legislation, which, among other advantages, made accelerated depreciation permanent.

In January, Mexicans living abroad sent US$4.594 billion in remittances. This amount was 1.4% lower than in January last year. The decline can be explained by challenges in the U.S. labor market and migrants’ concerns about stricter U.S. monetary policies.

Our take

Although remittance income declined year-on-year, the flow appears to be stabilizing. Over the past 12 months, the cumulative total reached US$61.71 billion, compared with US$61.777 billion previously.

Markets and Stocks

In Europe and Asia, equity markets deepened their losses amid the widening conflict in the Middle East and rising energy prices. The Stoxx Europe 600 was down around 3%, with banks and insurers leading declines, while in Asia the Nikkei fell nearly 3% and the Kospi more than 7%. Sovereign bond yields moved higher amid the risk of a new inflation shock.

In commodities, the reaction was markedly bullish in energy markets: Brent surpassed US$85 per barrel and WTI advanced more than 6–8%, amid the threat of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz and partial disruption of key infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, including refining and LNG facilities. European gas prices surged more than 40–50%, reviving fears of an energy shock similar to that of 2022. Precious metals prices, however, showed corrections.

Corporate

Fresnillo plc (FRES) reported revenues of US$4.561 billion in 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 30.5%. EBITDA rose 80.7%, driven mainly by higher gold and silver prices during the period. Regarding operational outlook, the company maintained its production guidance for the next two years, anticipating declines in gold and silver volumes due to lower ore grades.

Our take

The quarter reflected a favorable pricing environment amid elevated global uncertainty, which continues to support precious metal prices, representing more than 93% of FRES’s revenues. The expectation of lower production highlights structural challenges in the mining sector: lower ore grades, greater regulatory requirements, and longer development timelines for new projects. In this context, several mining companies have opted for inorganic growth strategies, as seen in the recent acquisition of Probe Gold.

Later today, Industrias Peñoles will release its quarterly figures, effectively concluding the earnings season in Mexico.

Our take

In line with Fresnillo’s results, expectations for Peñoles’ report are high, particularly given the favorable metals price environment, although its subsidiary’s figures already provide a relevant reference for the consolidated operational trajectory.

Fitch Ratings downgraded Paramount’s credit rating to BB+, placing it in speculative grade, following the announcement of the acquisition of Warner Bros., citing higher leverage for the new group. The downgrade also reflects pressures in the media sector and the potential impact of transformation costs on cash flow.

Target projected earnings per share for the fiscal year in a range of US$7.50 to US$8.50, with a midpoint above consensus, anticipating a slight improvement in comparable sales and net revenue growth of around 2%, which drove the stock up as much as 5.6% in pre-market trading.

The to-do list

Recommendation of the day

“The secret to making money in the markets is not being afraid when others are greedy and not being greedy when others are afraid”.