The analyst consensus slightly adjusted its macroeconomic expectations for Mexico in the latest Citi survey. For 2026, the median projection places the exchange rate at 18.18 pesos per dollar by the end of the year, slightly below the previous estimate. Regarding economic activity, GDP growth remains around 1.5%, reflecting moderate expansion. Headline inflation expected for 2026 stands at 4.0%, while core inflation is projected at 4.2%, still above Banco de México’s target.

Our take

Overall, the consensus maintains a perspective of moderate growth with still persistent inflationary pressures, suggesting that the disinflation process will continue gradually during the year. At the same time, exchange rate stability indicates that analysts continue to perceive relatively solid fundamentals for the Mexican currency despite a contained economic activity environment.

According to the final estimate published by Eurostat, the Eurozone’s gross domestic product grew 0.2% quarter-over-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2025 with seasonally adjusted figures. The reading was slightly below the initially estimated 0.3% growth. For the whole of 2025, the region’s GDP expanded by 1.4% after growing 0.9% in 2024.

Our take

Despite the 15% tariff imposed by the United States on European exports, the weakness in the region’s external sector, and rising geopolitical tensions, the Eurozone managed to maintain growth in 2025, albeit not strongly. For 2026, similar growth is forecast, around 1.2% for the year as a whole.

Later today, U.S. employment data for February will be released. Regarding nonfarm payrolls, the market consensus estimates job creation of 55,000, less than half of the 130,000 recorded in January, largely due to weather factors. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate stood at 4.3% in January, and the forecast for February is that it will remain unchanged at the same level.

Our take

These figures would support the view that the U.S. labor market remains stable, not destroying jobs but also not creating them at a high pace. Moreover, any moderation in job growth could largely be attributed to temporary disruptions: a labor strike at Kaiser Permanente and the negative impact of a storm at the beginning of February. In this context, as long as the unemployment rate remains stable, the labor market would continue to show relative resilience.

Labor productivity in the U.S. nonfarm sector increased 2.8% in the fourth quarter of 2025, moderating from the previous quarter but exceeding the 2.0% expectation. The underlying trend in productivity remains strong and continues to keep labor costs under control, which also increased 2.8% during the same period. The underlying direction of unit labor costs remains moderate, providing reassurance that the labor market is not increasing price pressures.

Our take

The report confirms a trend worth watching: the United States is experiencing a productivity cycle stronger than in past cycles. Artificial intelligence is a real factor, but its full macroeconomic impact has yet to materialize. The key for the coming quarters will be whether productivity gains spread beyond leading technology sectors or remain concentrated in a narrow segment of the economy.

The United States administration has granted India a temporary 30-day exemption to resume purchases of Russian oil. The measure comes after Washington imposed a 25% tariff on India last year as punishment for purchasing Russian crude, a penalty that was removed last month as part of a trade agreement. India, the world’s third-largest oil importer and one of the largest refining hubs globally, had been reducing its purchases of Russian crude and replacing them with supplies from the Middle East.

Our take

The temporary permission aims to act as a relief valve at a time when the conflict in the Persian Gulf has sharply increased concerns about global energy supply.

Markets and Stocks

Energy prices continue to rise amid the risk of supply disruptions stemming from the conflict in the Middle East. Brent crude is trading near 90 dollars per barrel, accumulating one of its largest weekly gains since 2020. This rebound reflects concerns about possible disruptions to crude transit through the Strait of Hormuz, a route through which nearly one-fifth of global oil trade passes. In precious metals, gold remains around 5,076 dollars per ounce.

Passenger traffic at Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste reached 5.7 million passengers in February 2026, representing annual growth of 1.6%. In Mexico, international traffic increased 3.4%, while domestic traffic fell 1.0%. Among the most relevant airports, Cancún recorded marginal growth of 0.4%.

Our take

Growth at Mexican airports remains modest, and the first quarter is one of the most relevant periods, so it is possible to estimate that quarterly figures will begin with moderate revenue growth.

Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte reported a 5.4% increase in passenger traffic in February 2026, reaching 2.0 million passengers. Growth was driven by domestic traffic, which advanced 6.5%, while international traffic declined slightly. Among the main airports, Monterrey recorded an increase close to 8.0%.

Our take

OMA’s results continue to show signs of resilience compared with other airport groups, thanks to lower exposure of its hubs to tourist destinations, with Monterrey continuing to lead growth.

Corporate

Shares of Gap fell around 8% after the company reported earnings slightly below the 46 cents estimated by the consensus. Revenue reached 4.24 billion dollars, in line with market expectations.

Marvell Technology reported quarterly results above expectations, driven by demand linked to artificial intelligence infrastructure. Management expects revenue growth to accelerate sequentially during fiscal year 2027.

The to-do list

Recommendation of the day

It’s Friday, so take the opportunity this weekend to try a different wine. This time we recommend a Mexican wine from Ensenada.