The chaos in the Middle East, with new bombardments in the Strait of Hormuz, has broken the relative caution investors had shown in recent hours after several turbulent and highly volatile sessions in energy markets. Oil prices resumed their upward movement and equities returned to declines, although in a moderate fashion. News leaked that the International Energy Agency is planning a record release of strategic petroleum reserves to help calm markets and offset supply disruptions caused by the conflict. Although the exact volume has not yet been confirmed, speculation suggests it could range between 300 and 400 million barrels, exceeding the 182 million barrels released following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Our take

The escalation of the conflict continues to fuel volatility across financial assets. Markets are currently reacting to headlines and the immediate present rather than looking toward the future. The measures announced by the International Energy Agency to offset the decline in oil supply could help marginally reduce some fears, but as long as the conflict continues, risk aversion is likely to remain elevated.

According to the final reading, Germany’s Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% in February compared with January. The figure was in line with preliminary estimates and analysts’ expectations. The increase during the month was primarily driven by higher energy prices, food prices, administered tariffs, and the cost of vacation packages. On an annual basis, CPI stood at 1.9% in February, compared with 2.1% in January.

Our take

Inflation had no longer been at the top of European policymakers’ list of concerns, but the situation changed with the recent rise in oil prices driven by the conflict in Iran. This could generate new inflationary pressures and influence the future policy steps of the European Central Bank.

In January 2026, 8,838,914 international travelers entered Mexico, 10.0% more than in the same month of 2025. Of this total, 4,287,586, or 48.5%, entered as international tourists, meaning foreign residents who stayed overnight in Mexico, while 4,551,328, or 51.5%, entered as international excursionists who did not stay overnight. In particular, tourists arriving by air increased 1.8% year-over-year. Meanwhile, in the first month of the year, foreign exchange earnings from international travelers reached 3.48 billion dollars, an increase of 3.9% annually, although the average spending per traveler fell 5.5%, possibly explained by the strength of the Mexican peso.

Our take

The year begins with a positive tone in terms of international travelers, maintaining the strong pace observed at the end of 2025. The growth in air travelers is particularly relevant because, although they represent only about one fifth of total international visitors to Mexico, they account for roughly three quarters of total tourism spending in the country.

Markets and Stocks

European markets traded with a clearly negative bias. The region appears particularly vulnerable due to its energy dependence, weaker growth momentum, and greater exposure to a deterioration in global trade. In this context, comments from European central bankers suggest that if the energy shock translates strongly into prices, the European Central Bank could be pressured to tighten its stance earlier than expected. Spain, meanwhile, approved within the International Energy Agency a proposal to release hundreds of millions of barrels of strategic reserves in response to growing concerns over the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. In Asia, performance was mixed.

WTI oil traded near 88 dollars per barrel, up close to 6% in the morning session, driven by new attacks on vessels and the absence of clear signals that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will normalize soon. The International Energy Agency is evaluating a potential release of up to 400 million barrels, which would represent the largest coordinated intervention in its history, aimed at cooling prices and reducing the risk of panic in energy markets.

Corporate

Volaris reported its February 2026 traffic figures in line with its operational guidance, with capacity measured in ASMs growing 2.7% in the quarter-to-date, close to its 3.0% annual target. Growth was concentrated in the international segment, where passenger numbers rose 14.6% and RPMs increased 12.6%, while domestic traffic remained essentially unchanged. Load factor improved by 50 basis points.

Our take

The figures confirm the deliberate reallocation of capacity toward the transborder market, which accounts for the entirety of ASM growth this quarter. Looking ahead, the main catalysts include the reduction in grounded aircraft, which after peaking at 41 units in January represents the main driver of margin expansion, and the resolution of the regulatory process for the merger with Viva Aerobus. The increase in oil prices remains the main short-term headwind given the weight of fuel costs in the airline’s cost structure.

Oracle reported quarterly revenue growth of 22% year-over-year, exceeding market expectations, and issued guidance reinforcing the narrative of sustained demand for computing capacity linked to artificial intelligence. The stock rose around 10% in pre-market trading.

Nvidia announced a 2 billion dollar investment in Nebius Group as part of a strategic alliance to develop artificial intelligence data centers. The agreement includes deploying more than five gigawatts of Nvidia systems by 2030 and covers the design, construction, and operation of data centers optimized for inference models.

JPMorgan began restricting part of the financing it provides to private credit funds after marking down certain loans in its portfolios, particularly loans granted to software companies, one of the key segments that has driven growth in this market. The move could affect capital flows toward managers such as Apollo and Blue Owl and reflects a more cautious stance from the bank regarding potential credit risks in the private lending segment.

The to-do list

Recommendation of the day

“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”